Hammadurrahaman (Research Assistant) CIWAD India talked to former Ambassador of India and a keen observer of West Asian affairs, Amb Anil Trigunayat on different issues concerning India West Asia relations.
Hammadurrahaman:
West Asia has been a volatile region for the last decade, how do you see these transformations are going to shape the region?
Anil Trigunayat:
You have rightly mentioned that West Asia has been a volatile region but not only for the last ten years. The ten years that you are talking about, are mainly the period of the Arab spring. But the Arab spring brought out the fundamental fissure in the society and the difference between the leadership and the people. Irrespective of which country you talk about, there has been a great dissatisfaction at the ground level. In all these countries of the Middle East, the Arab spring brought to focus the unmet expectations, disadvantages, and disenfranchisement. So we saw the Arab spring starting with Tunisia. Partly it failed, and partly it succeeded in achieving democratization. In my view, it was sort of a sui generis revolution that started from Tunisia and spiraled to Egypt and Syria. It was an external intervention that combined with the local revolution in Libya and then it moved on to Yemen and Syria.
In the process, the expectations of the people changed drastically. Gulf countries were able to manage these happenings, thanks to their rich energy sources; they provided some doles and introduced some reforms, such as in Bahrain. However, they have also been forced to change their way. Reforms were introduced in the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait, everywhere. Arab spring eventually died down as the Gulf countries tried to stop its speed and influence by containing the Muslim Brotherhood. As Al Sisi came, Egypt returned to square one again where it was before the revolution. Libya and Syria are still struggling. Millions of people have been displaced, And the problem is continuing, Which means we’re not looking at stability. Other than that there have been some historical issues between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel, which are continuing to play in the region. Iran has greater leeway compared to other Gulf or Arab countries because it’s using non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis in the Arab world. Not only Shias, but they also have the Sunnis, so they have control over there. So you see the problem in these countries.
HR.
How do you see India’s historical civilizational ties spread over centuries helping India West Asia cement their relations?
AT.
I look at it differently. We have had a relationship with the Middle East for centuries. Islam came to India even before the advent of the Arab world. But I feel that we took it for granted. Our relationship remained well at the popular level. But once they got oil they started looking to “The West” more and India as a supplier of cheap labor only. And we found a kind of respect that was missing as far as India was concerned. India didn’t correctly play its Islamic card. As we’re the Second-largest country in terms of Muslim population after 1971. Unfortunately, we didn’t try to say to the World who indeed we are? We allowed Pakistan to take the lead in that and later on start saying that Pakistan spoiled our relations with them.
This is something that we are looking at. Since Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s visits in the 1980s, we didn’t have a visit of any Prime Minister to the region until 2008. At that time, I was in the Ministry of External Affairs and I was wondering why there is no high-level visit to these countries. We started this with former PM Manmohan Singh’s visit to Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. This is when we observed a breakthrough taking place. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has maintained that momentum very well as far as our West Asia relations are concerned. The relationship is taking a strategic shape from the previously transactional relation. The strategic turn has come with the inclusion of different dimensions such as cyber security and counter-terrorism. Earlier, Saudi Arabia would have never talked about cross-border terrorism from Pakistan. But now, they understand India’s perspective on terrorism and they talk about it.
That is why the first time we have seen an Indian leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been accorded by all Gulf states with their highest national honours, unforeseen previously.
HR.
India has seen significant growth of non-oil trade relations with the Gulf. What are the new opportunities coming from this breakthrough?
AT
As far as trade is concerned, the UAE is our third-largest trading partner. At the same time, it is a transit and re-export hub. Food security is a less-talked-about subject, though very important bilateral issue now. Most of our fertilizers, Uriah and gas, etc. come from these countries, which is very important for India’s agricultural sector. When Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman came to India, he committed to one hundred billion dollars investment in India, besides previously invested capital. It is noted that ten to thirteen billion dollars have been invested during the pandemic. The UAE and Qatar are also looking to invest in India.
Whether it is in gas reserves, oil reserves, we can become long-term purchaser. It is the first time that Indian companies have got an oil block in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Now when these countries are moving towards renewable energy and building green infrastructure, India has a lot to offer.
With third country participation, a new West Asia quad, or as I call it, Quartet is emerging comprising the USA, the UAE, India, and Israel. In the Maghreb, Sub Sahara, and North Africa as well, India has a lot to cooperate in the fields of agriculture and food security. In high-tech, pharmaceuticals, and now vaccines, India has a lot to offer to the region.
HR.
How do you see the role of the Indian Diaspora in helping India’s West Asia relations?
AT.
Indian diaspora is always seen as the most preferred diaspora and India as a preferred source of labour force at all levels, including, both white and blue-collar workers, professionals, and doctors. There are nine million Indians in the Middle East. Indian diaspora is a source of goodwill for India and is considered instrumental in their development. Acknowledging this goodwill, the UAE has given land for a temple; Saudi Arabia is now teaching Ramayana and Mahabharata. They are changing and they are accommodating our concerns. Nearly forty percent of Indian workers are Hindus and Christians. They are accepted and welcomed there.
With the pandemic, there are a few challenges as well. A lot of Indian workers have come back to India and will go back. India also needs to reskill its labour force as these countries,especially the big and rich countries, aim to diversify their economy and manufacturing index, more AI-driven. This could be their industrial revolution 4.0. When the demand for robotics is increasing everywhere, the demand for physical labor that we are used to sending them may no longer be necessary. As a result, we need to reskill our labor to make them more useful.
HR.
India was worried about the growth of extremist forces after the rise of ISIS? How did India and West Asian countries cooperate to address terrorism and extremism?
AT.
As I said earlier before 2008 there was no cooperation on counter-terrorism. To find and take custody of a criminal sought by an Indian court was very difficult. The case of Dawood Ibrahim has been an example for a very long time. But now, things have changed. For example in the AgustaWestland case, the Dubai authorities sent back to India the accused Christian Michel. They are sending the persons who are involved in terrorist or criminal activities in India.
They also appreciate the Indian position vis a vis Pakistan. For us, Pakistan has been the main problem as Pakistan is perpetuating cross-border terrorism. These countries have begun to understand and are holding Pakistan accountable for terrorism. West Asian countries also understand that ISIS has affected them. So everybody is worried about terrorism. Terrorism is the biggest existential challenge to all of them, and the world. At one time, they thought religious fanaticism or ultra Salafi and Wahabi philosophies would be helping them, but Today, this is not the case. Now they are themselves trying to roll them down.
HR.
How does India manage a balance between Israel and Palestine? And What are the new opportunities India expects from the Abraham accord?
AT.
India has started de-hyphenating its Arab-Israel policy. Earlier it was like a zero-sum game. It means that if you are going to Israel it means you’re not going to Palestine. Since 2015, the government has decided and, I think rightly so, that when all the Arab countries are normalizing relations with Israel why shouldn’t India? I remember in 1992 when I was handling the desk in the ministry and India upgraded its diplomatic ties with Israel. We spoke to the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. He was happy that India was normalizing its relations. He said that India could be our interlocutor and our friend that could tell the Israelis to be good. So I think we can play an active role. We should be continuing to provide Palestine with all the assistance that it requires. We are providing thousands of scholarships, millions of dollars in investment, and budgetary support. India is creating an institutional structure there. At the same time, at the international level, when the fight started, (recently fought weeks long between Israel and Hamas) India was the one that in the security council, brought out statements for Gaza and we focused and reiterated our unwavering support for a two-state solution. Today, the only country that can bring both Israel and Palestine together is the USA.
As far as the Abraham accord is concerned, as I mentioned earlier, I see the collaboration of the three countries. The trilateral cooperation has now become quadrilateral cooperation and this will expand more. What I am seeing is that India, Israel, the UAE, and the USA, may cooperate for their mutual benefits in the region, and the African countries with their technologies, expertise, and finances.
HR.
In the past, India had constructively engaged with the Arab League and OIC and had attended several key meetings. How can India be part of West Asia’s regional cooperation organizations including with the GCC?
AT.
I think that we already have that collaboration with the Arab League. We do have a lot of activities and we do the business forum. It was 2008 onwards, we had an MoU or agreement with the Arab League and we hold dialogues on a regular annual basis. The Arab League has an ambassador in Delhi and our ambassador in Saudi Arabia is accredited to the Arab League as well. As far as OIC is concerned, in 1969 India was supposed to be a member of OIC and Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed had led the Indian delegation to the Morocco Conference. However, with Pakistan’s threat to boycott the conference if the Indian delegation was allowed, the host country asked India to stay as an observer which India refused. Since then OIC is the only forum, the largest after the UN, which Pakistan has been using for its anti-Kashmir tirade. This also has started changing since then external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj was invited by the UAE to address the foreign ministers forum of the OIC. Pakistan made her objections but to no avail. Saudi Arabia said in 2006 that India should be a member of OIC and Pakistan should propose it. As it was unlikely to happen, India also didn’t care much about that. But the forum where India can do much is the GCC. India should collaborate more with GCC.
HR.
How does India plan to balance its relations with the United States, Israel, and Iran? It seems Iran has apprehensions that India-US-Israel relations may affect India-Iran ties.
AT.
I think that this is a general perception in the media. But when we talk bilaterally, or if you are knowledgeable about what is happening inside, then you will realize it’s not so. They were, of course, disappointed that India stopped importing Iranian oil after the US sanctions on Iran. But if you see the history of interactions during that period, India is actively engaged in Chabahar port development. Indian foreign and defence ministers have visited Iran. So our collaboration continues with them also in the context of Afghanistan. During the pandemic, India has been providing assistance to Iran whatever was required. India has not downgraded its relations with Iran at the expense of any other country. So I think that what is happening today is like a de-hyphenation of relationships, you can think of it as strategic autonomy. India has a long cultural, civilizational, and strategic partnership. Iran is very much an independent country and like all civilizational countries will eventually want to assert its own identity. And that’s how you need to look at it. So the relationship with Israel is of course very strong. It’s a privileged relationship and a strategic partnership. Like the USA is our global strategic partner but at the same time, we have maintained good ties with Russia and China. The most important thing in foreign policy is your national interests. Whatever serves your interests, that relationship is better for that day.
HR
Turkey has been the most important export destination in entire West Asia. How this trade relations may shape India-Turkey relations, given the background of the current uneasy ties.
AT.
I think that Turkish leadership has recently changed a little bit. But in the recent past, they have been acting at the behest of Pakistan. Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey are laying railway lines. There is also an anti-US-Israel partnership where China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Qatar, to some extent, are emerging as a block. If the problems between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel aren’t sorted out, the block may emerge.
Turkey is finding a place for itself. President Erdogan wants to revive the Ottoman legacy. Turkey is a democratic country but at the same time, it is also supporting Muslim Brotherhood. It has been flexing its muscles everywhere from Libya to Iraq, Syria, and Azerbaijan. So our only problem is they have not been giving attention to our concerns. We have told them that you’re not the leader of the Islamic world. If you are, India has a more Muslim population than yours. But Turkey has tremendous resources that can reap both countries’ good fortune. We can work together and I find that we will have better relations with Turkey.
HR.
It is recorded that there were more than fifteen Indian Sufi Dargahs across Turkey, which shows the strength of shared religion and spiritual values in advancing their modern era ties. India has been actively engaged in Sufism diplomacy and organized the first international Sufi conference in 2016. Could you elaborate on the role of Sufism in advancing India’s cultural diplomacy with the region?
AT.
I think Sufism is a very beautiful dimension of Islam. Because at that time, the Bhakti movement, Sufism, and Guru Nanak all have emerged. Sufism is something that everybody can live with. I have personal contacts with Sufis. I have been to Sufi shrines many times. We respect them. So the problem is that in the Sunni world many of them don’t take them seriously. When I was in Libya, they just demolished the old Sufi dargah which was there. As far as Sufism is concerned, we have shared a legacy with Turkey. We have a lot of commonalities if the Turkish government also looks at it this way. Turkish serials are everywhere in our country. There are tremendous possibilities between our two nations. You are right that apart from economic and other dimensions our relationship through the prism of Sufism might go well.
HR.
How can India help the resolution of conflicts in the region in Yemen, and Libya?
AT.
I don’t think India has the heft currently to play a mediatory role or it should. Eventually, if India wishes to play a more significant role in the region it helps it to become more active in reducing tensions in the region. For example, in Libya, we have a lot of interest there. I was an ambassador there. We need to start our relationship with them on a much higher pedestal.
We have a lot of interests in Yemen as well. Yemenis have been very close to India. The Nizam of Hyderabad had more than hundreds of Yemeni soldiers. So we have historic relations with Yemen. Today I don’t think we have gone so far in that. I don’t see that India will be able to play a bigger role today. All we can help is to provide humanitarian assistance if it is needed. However, Saudi and Iran will have to ultimately sort it out.
HR.
What roles can Indian soft power play in West Asia especially Bollywood and software technology, especially in the backdrop of Saudi vision 2030?
AT.
Saudi Arabia is very much keen. Recently we had Salman Khan go there and a big concert was organized. They are developing this tourism city which is globally called NEOM. Where they are hoping to attract a lot of people. All the Bollywood actors go to Dubai and many Arabic channels watch not only their films but they know them very well. Our serials are popular there because our culture is very similar and our words even have commonality. So our soft power is very much there. These countries, like Turkey, have very good locations to shoot films. Saudi Arabia is also promoting the film industry there. We have the biggest film industry we need to work on. There are a lot of possibilities.
