by Prof. Scott Lucas
The Centre for India West Asia Dialogue (CIWAD) hosted an insightful online seminar focusing on the intricate dynamics of the “Indirect War” involving Israel, Iran, and the broader West Asia region. The session featured Professor Scott Lucas, a distinguished authority in International Politics from University College Dublin, as the keynote speaker.
Professor Lucas adeptly navigated the seminar through five key components, namely: Historical Context, 21st Century Background, Recent Developments, Possible Future Developments, and Concluding Thoughts. He delved into the multifaceted nature of the “Indirect War,” shedding light on its historical roots entrenched in economic, political, ideological, and religious realms.
Drawing from historical precedents such as Israel’s 2013 attack on Syria, Professor Lucas outlined how such events failed to catalyze direct conflict but rather served as displays of power. He astutely predicted the persistence of this indirect conflict, linking it to ongoing tensions such as Israel’s involvement in the Gaza conflict.
Central to his discourse was the notion of a security dilemma faced by both Israel and Iran, emphasizing that not all citizens perceive external threats in the same light. Professor Lucas eloquently likened the current state of affairs to Samuel Huntington’s “clash of civilizations,” portraying it as a geopolitical and propaganda tool. Tracing the historical narrative, Professor Lucas highlighted instances where Israeli entities collaborated with Iran against common adversaries like Saddam Hussein. He underscored the destabilizing effects of events like the Iraq Civil War and the revelation of Iran’s nuclear program in 2003, further complicating regional dynamics.
The seminar elucidated how pivotal events such as Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 and the Arab Uprisings of 2010 shaped the evolving landscape. Iran’s support for the Assad regime in Syria and Israel’s apprehensions regarding Iran’s growing presence in the region emerged as key focal points. Moreover, Professor Lucas touched upon efforts for peace, including the Obama administration’s two-state solution initiative in 2009, which often faced challenges amidst regional tensions. He highlighted internal fractures within Israeli society, manifested in growing reluctance towards military service.
The seminar culminated with reflections on the October 7 attack, described as Israel’s version of 9/11, which caught Iran off guard and prompted defensive measures. Professor Lucas underscored Iran’s proactive communication with Turkey and Switzerland following an attack on its embassy in Damascus on April 1. Overall, the seminar provided invaluable insights into the complexities of the “Indirect War” and its implications for the volatile West Asia region, leaving participants with a deeper understanding of the ongoing geopolitical dynamics.
